Explaining The ABCD Of Monsoon Forecsasting



                                      Explaining The ABCD of Monsoons Forecasting.

This year in the month Of April, Indian meteorological department showed optimistically pessimistic saying India will suffer from deficient rains.
IMD tried to explain its cause by referring to AINino Effect. However this year India had seen Excessive rains in the months of June in most Parts of the country.
So here some Questions arise into our mind.  What Is IMD? How IMD Predicts About Monsoon.
And Why Sometimes Their predictions Turns opposite??
Indian Meteorological Department is an agency of the Ministry of Earth Sciences of the Government of India. It is the principal agency responsible for meteorological observations, weather forecasting and seismology. IMD is headquartered in New Delhi and operates hundreds of observation stations across India and Antarctica. It was established in the year 1875 with H F Bianford As its head.
EINino refers to the unusual warming of Indian Pacific Ocean sea temperature. Some says when there is Einino effect, then amount of rain generally decreases. However Statics Shows that there is sometimes More Amount of raining has occurred in the past.
Enso effect- Cooling Of the surface of Pacific Ocean. Both these combine called as ENSO effect.
According to some scientist when there is Positive dipole. (Positive Dipole refers to the cooling of surface air around East Indian Ocean and Heating of plains of West Somali coast) There are Chances of Good Rain to Occur .This happened in 1994 and 1997.
IN the year 1970 Roland Madden and Paul Julian of the American National Centre for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Found Madden Julian Oscillation Which Also Affects the Monsoon. MJO is a moving system of wind, cloud and pressure that brings rain as it circles around the equator.
The effect of the MJO is witnessed mainly in the tropical region, in the band between 30 degrees North and 30 degrees south of the equator, even though the mid-latitude regions in both hemispheres also feel its impact. India falls in this band. Because the MJO cycle lasts only 30-60 days, around the globe Bringing rain In one side and suppressing on the other side of the Globe. In the month Of June MJO passed over Indian Ocean resulting 20 days of rain bringing some relief from the Summer Heat.

In a sum there are so Many factors which Affects the prediction of monsoon. Also some claim Global warming also affects the change of monsoon patterns and amount of rains which a county will receive… 

With inputs from New Indian Express,Civil Service Chnoricle....

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